Robots Nearby - Robots to lookward to

Perhaps one of the most aspiring innovations nowadays are Robots . Humanoid robots as those seen in movies will be integral part of Earth's life. Perhaps this is the most needed invention and prolonging of technological advancement. Robots will simplify our lives, help us in our daily activities, do boring jobs and tasks, be everywhere around us - at home serving breakfast, at the super market doing jobs, perhaps will give regulatory figures a hand and as well replace is in much most needed zones - manufacturing, but also supply chain, logistics, finance and economics, will take care of our children bringing and helping them at school - shortly said robots will be everywhere. In addition, robots will be useful in positions where there is accurancy needed, thus being the medical industry. Robots are already in use in many of the operation room - such is the Da Vinci 5 or even newer generation being applicable in the neurosurgary rooms.

This blog posts will explore the rate of acceleration of robots, where will they find roles, the way to becoming multi-planetary and the the most needed aspect, being manufacturing.

Currently it is suggested that robots will be up to several millions in the next 20-25 years, whereas a much more realistic understanding is that there will be robots almost everywhere in the world, going to Mars and beyond. This projection predicts humanoid robots to reach billion in the next 5 to 6 years.

Humanoid robots are expected to see exponential growth. Morgan Stanley forecasts 1 billion humanoid robots coexisting with humans by 2050, with a market value surpassing $5 trillion, where as my view is at least 2 billion humanoids robots by this year.

Robots will have dominance and application in the following spheres of interest:

1. Industrial and Commercial: By 2050, roughly 90% of humanoid robots (around 930 million units) are anticipated to be utilized for repetitive, simple, and structured tasks in industrial and commercial settings. This includes manufacturing, warehousing, logistics (AGVs & AMRs), and commercial cleaning.

2. Household Use: While commercial use will dominate, household adoption is expected to pick up, though more conservatively. Approximately 80 million humanoids are forecasted to be in homes by 2050. Domestic cleaning robots are also projected to reach 1.2 billion units by the same year. This growth is contingent on technological advancements, price declines, and societal acceptance.

3. Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): The number of AVs is expected to surge, with an estimated 1.8 billion by 2050, revolutionizing transportation.

4. Caring Robots: As global populations age, caring robots will become increasingly important. Forecasts suggest 71 million caring robots by 2050.

5. Other sectors

   
   

Healthcare:Robotic surgeons, diagnostic robots, and caregivers.

Agriculture: Autonomous robots for planting, harvesting, and monitoring.

Retail and Services: Shopping assistants, delivery robots, and inventory management.

Education and Entertainment: Personalised tutors, companions, and interactive experiences.

Robot to lookward to - Optimus

The Tesla Bot, Optimus, was firstly introduced in 2021, followed by the enhanced Bot 2 developed and introduced in 2023. The Tesla Bot is a step towards a human-robots future which is expected to boost economic growth tremendously, possibly through enhancing production and human advancement. As cars and other automatic transport tools has brought a tremendous change in the world, the humanoid Optimus by Tesla is expected to accelerate the Earth’s potential.

Cost estimation is between 10 and 20 000 U.S dollars. This will come with the freedom to choose between different options according to customer preference. There will be mass production to make this estimated low cost of the robot. Unlike the human, Optimus has no need to rest, able to operate after just few minutes of super charging after battery depletion.

Until that moment the robot was trained to 30% walk speed boost forward, fully move its thumbs with 22 DoF(Degree of Freedom) compared to humans 27 DoF, a 2-DoF actuated neck coordination and do boring tasks. Can you imagine what the Tesla factories look like already? Further tasks will include assembly operations, playing music intruments, handling complex kids care, teaching. Everyone will be able to remotely control the performance of the tasks.  To become fully cooperative, Optimus will continue to be trained with the natural language model algorithms, having its own brain interface neural network.

Robots will move civilisation to a more complex society with more levels and different approach to every day life. Robots will accelerate human potential and will force breakthroughts in medicine potentially helping finding cure for diseases and dangerous viruses, as well as serve as a protective shield agains hostile AI. Robots will be a good example for low-income countries where people will be pushed towards more complex behavior, education, freelancing and inventions. Robots will be our best friends, I think no one will be lonely anymore, which also is a though of sustaining societies by actively negaing and buidling communities to sustain life as we know it.

Here is a more detailed view of how robots may advance the world: 

Humanoid robots are poised to play a transformative role in pushing human civilization towards greater complexity, not necessarily by directly creating new societal structures, but by profoundly altering the underlying conditions and capabilities that enable complex systems to emerge and thrive. Here are examples:

1. Augmenting Human Capabilities and Productivity:

Specialisation and Efficiency: Humanoid robots will free up human labor for more complex, creative, and higher-order cognitive work. This allows for greater specialisation and efficiency, a hallmark of complex civilisations. Imagine human architects designing intricate cityscapes while humanoid robots precisely execute the construction.

Expansion of Human Capacity: They will extend human capabilities into environments that are currently inaccessible or dangerous (deep space, disaster zones, hazardous industrial settings). This opens up new frontiers for resource extraction, scientific discovery, and infrastructure development, all contributing to a more complex global civilisation.

Addressing Labor Shortages: In aging societies, humanoids can fill critical labor gaps in healthcare, elder care, and various service industries, maintaining and even expanding the complexity of social support systems that would otherwise strain under demographic pressures.

2. Driving Scientific and Technological Advancements:

Feedback Loop of Innovation accelerating technological progress across a wide spectrum of fields.

Research and Development Platforms: Humanoid robots can serve as platforms for complex research in areas like biomechanics, cognitive science, and human-robot interaction, leading to a deeper understanding of both artificial and biological intelligence.

3. Enhancing Social Interaction and Services:

Personalized Assistance and Companionship: In homes and healthcare settings, humanoids can provide personalized assistance, companionship, and emotional support, particularly for the elderly, disabled, or those experiencing isolation. This enhances the quality of life for individuals, which is a key indicator of civilizational advancement.

Education and Training: Humanoid robots can act as interactive tutors, providing personalized learning experiences and helping to teach complex concepts or social-emotional skills. This can lead to a more educated and adaptable populace, capable of navigating and contributing to a more complex world.

Customer Service and Hospitality: They can revolutionize service industries by providing efficient, personalized, and multilingual interactions, enhancing customer experiences and streamlining operations in complex urban environments.

4. Enabling New Forms of Economic and Social Organization:

Decentralized Production and Services: With versatile humanoid robots, production and services might become more decentralized, allowing for greater customization and responsiveness to local needs, potentially leading to more resilient and complex economic networks.

Emergence of New Industries and Job Roles: While some jobs may be displaced, the need to design, manufacture, maintain, program, and interact with millions of robots will create entirely new industries and job categories, leading to a more complex and dynamic labor market.

Data Generation and Analysis: The widespread deployment of humanoids will generate vast amounts of data about the physical world and human-robot interactions. Analyzing this data can lead to new insights and optimizations, further driving the complexity of our understanding and management of society.

The increasing sophistication of humanoids will undoubtedly lead to philosophical discussions about consciousness, rights, and what it means to be human, adding layers of ethical and philosophical complexity to our civilization.

What is more, there is an ambitious vision where humanoid robots, mostly Optimus play a crucial role in making humanity multi-planetary, specifically by being among the first to land on Mars soon. Here's a breakdown of this concept and the challenges involved:

The Vision: Optimus as a Martian Pioneer

The core idea is to send Optimus robots to Mars ahead of human astronauts, leveraging their capabilities for critical precursor tasks. Imagine Optimus robots deploying solar panels for power generation, setting up initial communication arrays, and even beginning the construction of basic habitats or shelters. Their human-like dexterity would be an advantage for tasks like assembling components. Optimus could be programmed to identify, extract, and process Martian resources, such as water ice or atmospheric CO2, to produce fuel, oxygen, or building materials. While rovers like Perseverance are highly specialized, a general-purpose humanoid robot could conduct a wider range of experiments, collect diverse samples, and operate more complex scientific equipment, potentially accelerating our understanding of Mars.

Payload Integration: Successfully integrating Optimus and its necessary tools and equipment into Starship, ensuring it can survive the launch and landing, and then deploy and operate effectively on Mars, is a complex engineering task.

Initial though of why I have written this blog posts is because we need to solve the problem with manufacturing being tough and challanging for industries and companies. 

Manufacturing needs to flow like a river and increase with time if we want to bring civilisation forward. Manufacturing has to be overcome human hurdles and become a natural recourse same as water sources or Vitamin D for the organism. The reason is that there will be need for more technology and vehicles. People will be able to afford robots, cars and machines. We need to bring space to the universe but expanding the manufacturing hurdles. Which are currently time, humans, materials, costs. To accelerate manufacturing we need to bring costs down, this may in short term be troubling for the goal achievements of our financial intituations but will ensure more people access to sustainable machines and vehicles. Manufacturing then will be unavoidable. An advice to how it can happen is to bring robots and machines into manufacturing first and then to all other roles. The problem with AI replacing humans while we are not prepared for this outcomes needs to reach the rates where people give their roles, the still need their roles. We will not outlive seeing robots everywhere, so no need to be rushy in replacing humans. This is detrimental to sustaining civilisation.